What data is relevant and what additional data would be helpful?
Which combination of actions have the biggest impact or pose the greatest risk?
How have others addressed similar challenges?
What are the relative costs and resources needed for each solution?
With this comprehensive understanding, use our causal models to evaluate a multitude of options and choose the best strategy to achieve your goals
We use knowledge visualization techniques and modeling approaches to capture and express knowledge required to address a particular challenge. Identification of all relevant variables and their dependencies is an important first step to decide on the right actions given a specific situation.
For example, many factors affect food security. How do property rights affect food security? Could diet play a role? How do farmers’ investments in their farms affect food security?
We use probabilistic reasoning methods and learning algorithms to understand data , discover patterns, correlations and causal relationships. We then develop tools and simulation models to identify and evaluate options to improve outcomes.
Most evaluation studies take a “black box” approach. They assess the impact of an intervention on a small number of outcome indicators and they provide policy effects in a specific setting. In order for a monitoring and evaluation system to be credible and convincing, research as well as our own experience suggest it is useful to find measures of intermediate impact further up the causal chain, closer to point of the intervention itself.
Our approach in design of an evaluation and monitoring study is to consider relevant contextual factors (e.g., economic, cultural, and political) and explore the impact on intermediate or structural variables.
Developing the right business strategy requires a good understanding of the complexity of problems and challenges. Using knowledge visualization techniques and graphical models, we facilitate discussions with our clients, make their tacit knowledge explicit, and build conceptual model that represent their specific situation. Such models help the clients to better understand the inter-relationship among various factors, and develop and evaluate solutions and strategies to achieve desired outcomes.
BANKING
THE CHALLENGE:
In an especially limited information environment, identify the sources and underlying causes of money laundering and assess the vulnerabilities of banking systems to those threats.
EDUCATION
THE CHALLENGE:
Given limited resources, provide policymakers in Peru and Jamaica with policy interventions to improve student reading scores
AGRICULTURE
THE CHALLENGE:
Provide policymakers and program designers with models and tools to inform agricultural policy design and implementation.
ENERGY
THE CHALLENGE:
To guide business planning and portfolio management for carbon-fund portfolio managers, estimate the probability of an Emission Reduction (ER) program succeeding in a specific developing country, with little or no data on similar projects in that country
Due to the highly-visual nature of our approach, the best way to understand how our capabilities can support decision-making to solve concrete problems is through a presentation with questions and answers. We stand ready to make a presentation for you and your team–either in person or via screen sharing–at your convenience.
