The Bayesian Probability puzzle Solution: ‘When Probability Meets Real Life’

The Bayesian Probability puzzle Solution: ‘When Probability Meets Real Life’

When making hard decisions, do you go with your gut or try to calculate the risks? In many cases going with your gut is fine, but the answers to our February puzzle problems show how explicit probabilistic thinking can outperform intuitive estimates. They also highlight the differences between situations where an intuitive approach succeeds and ones where it fails.