Causal Links' decision-making support and capacity building products span a range of substantive areas, including education, financial management, healthcare, project planning, and risk assessment.  Featured solutions include:

IMPROVING QUALITY OF SCHOOLING IN PERU AND JAMAICA

Causal Links supported a USAID project to help Peruvian and Jamaican school districts decide how to allocate limited resources and maximize educational gains. More specifically, education policymakers in Peru and Jamaica wanted to identify policies interventions that had the most impact on improving student reading scores. Using our Policymakers' Workbench, policymakers observed and discussed the impact of changes to resources, instructional practices and combinations of potential interventions.

ASSESSING RISK IN BANKING

To assess the risk of money laundering, an expert-based model specified the complex relationships among the following sets of variables: country (governance, culture, regulations, law enforcement), industries/sectors (insurance, banking, casinos), money launderers (local and international proceeds), and the geopolitical environment. The model uses a probabilistic approach to assess vulnerabilities, threats, and risks. The risk assessment tool based on this model allows decision-makers to understand sources of vulnerability in the banking sector and to iteratively observe and analyze the effects of various policy options.

OPTIMIZING OILFIELD PERFORMANCE

When production in an oilfield suddenly drops, it is normally due to a leak in the casing of a well, a problem at the surface facilities, or a layer that simply has run out of oil. The Analyzer/Optimizer tool was developed to perform a probabilistic diagnosis based on the information provided by technicians in the oilfield. Given this information, entered as answers to a series of questions, it computes the chance of the possible causes for the problem. Next, for each of those possible situations, the tool generates a simulation of the situation and recommends alternative actions. The Analyzer/Optimizer was used for decision support and for training oilfield staff.

News Items

• On March, 18, 2009 Massoud Moussavi gave a presentation for the human Development Department of the Middle East and North Africa region in the World Bank.
• In September 2008, Massoud Moussavi and Noel McGinn visited Peru on a USAID sponsored project and presented the results of their work to the National Council of Education in Peru. The following is a translation of an article written about their presentation published on the council's website:

"American Specialists Visit CNE"

(translated from cne.gob.pe)

Doctors Noel McGinn and Massoud Moussavi, specialists in education policies and educational systems at Harvard University and American University respectively, presented yesterday at the premises of the National Council of Education a new tool for analyzing the performance in the educational systems in their actions aimed at better results, called "Policy Maker's Workbench - PMWB."

The presentation, which was promoted by USAID in coordination with the CNE, was conducted with the assistance of the president of the National Council of Education, counselors, the executive secretary of the Council, members of the technical team and guests.

The presentation showed how the model can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of certain policies created for the industry educativoen particular to estimate the degree of influence factors on the hundreds of school learning and this might help to know how the right combination of interventions can achieve Actual changes in the quality of primary education in Peru.

The explanation on the rationale and usefulness of the new tool was performed by Dr. Massoud Moussavi who indicated that "labor, which have been developing for two years, is not yet complete. The goal is to develop techniques and tools to support the process of decision-making; also help staff technician for the development of educational projects. "

There are two stages in the process of decision-making, Moussavi referred during his speech. "The first is to diagnose problems and the second has to do with determining the action to continue." The tool, the expert said, "must be able to answer three questions: Questions diagnostic questions about decisions and questions relating to knowledge" Rodriguez added.

To expand the theme, the expert Noel McGinn said that "the work we are presenting is an effort to model the teaching and learning process as it is carried out in schools. The work is based on empirical research and experience working in the field, but also in the theory of learning and organizations. Seeking to present a coherent and systematic knowledge and experience accumulated by many educators and researchers. We have tried to represent their beliefs, and ours, in a systematic way to show how the educational inputs are transformed into learning achievement. "

He further indicated, Mc Ginn, that "the complete model is complex and includes more than 60 variables associated as causal chains. (...) Each of these factors, which are directly related to learning are also linked to other aspects which are in turn related to inputs or factors beyond affecting teachers, students, management, infrastructure and materials. "

Mc Ginn reported that the model was fed with information from a quick survey implemented in schools in Peru and Jamaica. In the case of Peru, said the expert, were placed 60 variables, but looked 24, the most influence on educational outcomes. For example, Mc Ginn said, if you increase the percentage of any of the variables as the "textbooks", also increased by reading comprehension.

It should be noted that Noel McGinn is professor emeritus of the Graduate School of Education at Harvard University, Colleague emeritus of the Institute for International Development at Harvard and an Associate Professor at the University Alberto Hurtado de Chile. Most of his professional work has been directed to the relationship between research, practice and policies in education systems.

For their part, Massoud Moussavi is a Resident Scholar at American University and a consultant to the World Bank. From 2001 to 2003, he was a visiting scientist at Schlumberger Cambridge Research. His professional work has been directed mainly to the creation and implementation of methods to transfer knowledge to the actions and decisions of operational policies to develop products that can attend the "policy makers" in the formulation of policy options competitive, assessing its benefits and managing their risks.